Thursday, September 27, 2012

Vail Resorts 2013 Outlook

On Tuesday, Vail Resorts reported results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended July 31, 2012 and provided its outlook for the fiscal year ending July 31, 2013.
Commenting on the Company's season pass sales for the upcoming 2012/2013 ski season, Katz said, "We continue to be extremely pleased with the strength of our season pass sales to date, especially coming off the challenging weather of the past ski season and the record performance we had in season passes last year. Sales of season passes through September 23, 2012 for the upcoming 2012/2013 season were up approximately 17% in units and approximately 21% in sales dollars versus the comparable period in the prior year, adjusted as if Kirkwood were owned in both periods. To date, we have sold approximately 178,000 passes for the upcoming 2012/2013 ski season. We have seen strong gains across all our key products and geographies, including from both our destination and regional guests, with particularly strong momentum in Tahoe, with the addition of Kirkwood and the Tahoe Local Pass, and in international markets. We anticipate seeing continued strength in the Tahoe market and from Europe, particularly with the recently announced addition of 3 days of skiing at Verbier to our Epic Pass. While we believe that a portion of the significant increase in sales to date is due to some timing shifts, we hope to maintain the vast majority of these absolute gains through the rest of the selling period, with a resulting moderation of the ultimate percentage increase in the program. Based on historical purchasing patterns, approximately 60% of our passes have typically been sold at this point in the selling process. It is also important to remember that all of the pass sales for the upcoming 2012/2013 ski season will be recorded as revenue in Fiscal 2013, over the course of the 2012/2013 ski season. This season pass sales performance provides a strong, pre-season indicator as we head into the 2012/2013 ski season".
Regarding advance Lodging bookings, Katz said, "Although it is still early in the cycle (less than 15% of winter season bookings are historically made by this time), we are pleased that at this point bookings are up in both room nights and revenue over the prior year".
Commenting on Fiscal 2013 guidance, Katz continued, "We would like to announce our guidance for Fiscal 2013. As always, our visibility on the upcoming season at this point in time is limited. Our guidance for Fiscal 2013 anticipates a return to more normal weather conditions and the continuation of a challenging, but stable economic environment. Based on our current estimates, our Fiscal 2013 guidance range anticipates Resort Reported EBITDA of between $260 million and $270 million, reflecting a 27% to 32% increase over Resort Reported EBITDA in Fiscal 2012. Our Real Estate segment results are impacted in any given year by the timing and mix of real estate sold and closed. For Fiscal 2013, we are estimating Real Estate Reported EBITDA of negative $9 million to negative $17 million, including approximately $2 million of non-cash stock-based compensation expense. Included in these estimates are Net Real Estate Cash Flow of $15-$25 million (defined as Real Estate Reported EBITDA, plus non-cash real estate cost of sales, plus non-cash stock-based compensation expense, plus change in real estate deposits less investment in real estate). Net income attributable to Vail Resorts, Inc. is expected to be in a range of $50 to $60 million in Fiscal 2013". 

Vail Resorts is the leading mountain resort operator in the United States. Vail Resorts operate the mountain resorts of Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge and Keystone in Colorado, and Heavenly, Northstar and Kirkwood in the Lake Tahoe area of California and Nevada, and the GrandTeton Lodge Company in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Company's subsidiary, RockResorts, a luxury resorthotel company, manages casually elegant properties. Vail Resorts Development Company is the real estateplanning, development and construction subsidiary of Vail Resorts, Inc. Vail Resorts is a publicly heldcompany traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

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